Some things to consider, the above figures are of recorded infected persons, they include people with underlying health conditions which would not be the case in a process of controlled infections, these people would not be included for infection in the first place. To reach 70% infection rate we would not need to use all of the 50-59yr cohort. The chances of dying of Covid-19 for the non-vulnerable age groups are as follows:
So would 'cocooning' the most vulnerable 30% for a quarantine period, and basically infecting the rest of us not drastically reduce the death rate and also lead to herd immunity? The estimated herd immunity percentage is around 70% and conveniently those who are at most risk make up less than 30% of the population. I have been looking at some of the largest research papers on the death rate and its pretty clear who is most at risk, the over 65's and more so the over 80's also those with particular medical conditions.
If the impending quarantine only serves to buy some time and get ahead of the virus then we still need an overall solution, our options are either a vaccine or we achieve herd immunity, i.e enough of us have had it and became immune that the chains of transmission are so broken that the virus dies out. Please do not post Tourism-related queries on /r/Ireland - they will be removed!įriends of /r/Ireland/Cairde na /r/hÉireannįor complete list of all 600+ Irish subs click here! If you can't find what you're looking for, then you can then post a new thread on /r/IrishTourism. Please have a look there first for any tourism related questions.
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